According to the study by MIT , India will be the worst affected country due to corona virus, followed by the United States (95,000 cases per day), South Africa (21,000 cases per day) and Iran (17,000 cases per day) by the end of February 2021. The study takes into account three scenarios mainly : (1) current testing rates and their response, (2) if testing increases by 0.1 per cent per day from July 1, 2020 (3) if testing remains at current levels but contact rate to perceived probability is set to 8 (if one infected person can infect eight people). As per the study the chance of worsening the covid 19 situation is very high.
Researchers Hazhir Rahmandad, TY Lim and John Sterman of MIT’s Sloan School of Management used the SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model, a standard mathematical model for infectious diseases used by epidemiologists, for their analysis. They have also projected that the total number of cases worldwide would be between 20 crore and 60 crore by “spring 2021” (March-May) in the absence of a treatment.
The model shows the importance and urgent need of testing in containing the spread of Covid-19 as cases grow so fastly , implying that delay in testing or less testing could be inevitable to a more significant proportion of the population.
The MIT research reveals that Covid-19 infection and death data is undoubtedly under-reported worldwide. As per the estimate total infections is 8.85 crore, and 6 lakh deaths by June 18, 2020 and it is 1.48 times larger than reported numbers respectively.
India’s corona virus count crossed the seven lakh-mark on Monday, Within four days the number of infections in the country reached six lakh. 22,252 fresh cases and 467 deaths in have made the total cases in the country to 7,19,665 and the death count to 20,160.
India has recorded eight times as many cases as China, where the virus was first identified in late 2019. But its death rate per 10,000 people is still a low 0.15, compared with 3.97 in the United States and 6.65 in the United Kingdom, according to a Reuters tally
On Monday WHO stated that India sees deadliest day of coronavirus, and warns covid is worsening globally . Although situation in Europe is improving, globally it is worsening. India’s COVID-19 number hit a new high today as 9,987 new cases were recorded in last 24 hours. The novel coronavirus has killed over 4.03 lakh people worldwide. Over 77 lakh people have been diagnosed positive for for COVID-19 infection across the world.
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